The study, published today in the journal Science Advances, reports that the Arctic has warmed by 0.75 degrees Celsius in the last decade alone. By comparison, the Earth as a whole has warmed by nearly the same amount, 0.8 degrees Celsius, over the past 137 years.

With 2019 on pace as one of the warmest years on record, a
major new study reveals how rapidly the Arctic is warming and examines global
consequences of continued polar warming.

The comprehensive
report represents the efforts of an international team of 15 authors, involving
Arctic Centre at the University of Lapland, specializing in an array of disciplines,
including the life, Earth, social, and political sciences.

– Many of the changes over the past decade are so dramatic they make you wonder what
the next decade of warming will bring, said lead author Eric
Post, a University of California Davis professor of climate change
ecology.

What 2 degrees global warming means for
the poles?

The study illustrates what 2 degrees Celsius of global warming
could mean for the high latitudes: up to 7
degrees warming for the Arctic and 3 degrees warming for
the Antarctic during some months of the year.

– Under a
business-as-usual scenario, the Earth as a whole may reach that milestone in about
40 years. But the Arctic is already there during some months of the year, and it
could reach 2 degrees warming
on an annual mean basis as soon as 25 years before the rest of the planet, said Eric
Post.

The research group documented widespread effects of
warming in the Arctic and Antarctic on wildlife, traditional human livelihoods,
tundra vegetation, methane release, and loss of sea- and land ice.

– If we haven’t already entered a new Arctic, we are certainly on
the threshold. In Russia, extreme weather in recent years has led to mass starvation
of reindeer in winter due to ice encrusted snow, and massive mortality of reindeer
due to anthrax released from warming permafrost, says research professor
Bruce Forbes from the Arctic Centre at the University
of Lapland.

The authors say that active, near-term measures
to reduce carbon emissions are crucial to slowing high latitude warming, especially
in the Arctic.

"UutiskuvaRomaSerotetto_reindeer_jamal_550.jpg"
Photo by Roma Serotetto: Reindeer frozen in place after a massive
rain-on-snow event on Yamal Peninsula, West Siberia during winter 2013-2014.

What happens in the Arctic doesn’t stay in the
Arctic

Major consequences of projected warming in the absence
of carbon mitigation are expected to reach beyond the polar regions. Among these are
sea level rise resulting from rapid melting of land ice in the Arctic and Antarctic,
as well as increased risk of extreme weather, deadly heat waves, and wildfire in
parts of the Northern Hemisphere.

– What happens in the
Arctic doesn’t stay in the Arctic. The dramatic warming and melting of Arctic ice is
impacting the jet stream in a way that gives us more persistent and damaging weather
extremes, said Michael Mann, a distinguished professor of atmospheric sciences at
Penn State.

The project was
led by the University of California, Davis. Co-authoring institutions include
Pennsylvania State University; Aarhus University; University of Oxford; University
of Lapland; University of Colorado, Boulder; Chicago Botanic Garden; Dartmouth
College; University of Washington; Umea University; University College London; U.S.
Arctic Research Commission; Harvard University; and National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA).

Funding for the study was provided
by grants from the U.S. National Science Foundation, Academy of Finland and JPI
Climate, National Geographic Society, Natural Environment Research Council, the
Swedish Research Council, U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and
NOAA.

Paper The Polar Regions in a
2oC warmer world is
published on http://advances.sciencemag.org/. Link to the paper.

For more information:

Bruce C.
Forbes, Research Professor
Arctic Centre, University of Lapland
bruce.forbes(at)ulapland.fi, +358 40 847 9202